Summary
This modelling study presents the first quantitative projections of peatland dynamics and associated emissions in the context of Paris Agreement-compatible climate pathways. The authors demonstrate that without dedicated peatland policy, the global land system remains a net carbon source throughout the 21st century, contrary to current mitigation pathway assumptions. However, rewetting approximately 60% of presently degraded peatlands alongside protection of intact peatlands could enable the land system to become a net carbon sink by 2100, thereby reconciling land-use pressures (food, bioenergy) with climate targets.
UK applicability
The United Kingdom has extensive degraded peatlands, particularly in England and Scotland, making these findings directly relevant to UK climate and land-use policy. The study's emphasis on peatland rewetting as a mitigation strategy aligns with emerging UK peatland restoration initiatives and could inform revisions to agricultural and climate policies.
Key measures
CO₂ and greenhouse gas emissions from peatland drainage and oxidation; peatland area dynamics; land-system net carbon balance; proportion of degraded peatlands requiring rewetting to achieve mitigation targets
Outcomes reported
The study modelled future peatland dynamics and associated greenhouse gas emissions under a 2 °C climate mitigation pathway, projecting land-use changes and carbon sequestration outcomes to 2100. It quantified the potential for peatland rewetting and protection policies to shift the global land system from a net carbon source to a net carbon sink.
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