Summary
This expert-led synthesis reveals that peatlands, which currently function as global carbon sinks, are predicted to shift to carbon sources this century under climate and land-use pressures. Despite their critical role in the global carbon cycle, peatland ecosystems remain absent from major Earth system models and integrated assessment models used in climate projections and mitigation policy. The paper identifies key biophysical drivers of change and quantifies uncertainties, advocating for better integration of peatland science into modelling frameworks.
UK applicability
UK peatlands (particularly in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and upland England) are substantial carbon stores and are subject to similar climate warming and land-use pressures; findings directly inform UK climate modelling accuracy and peatland management policy, particularly given the UK's commitments to peatland protection and restoration.
Key measures
Drivers of peatland carbon dynamics; carbon sink-to-source transition trajectory; model representation and gaps in climate projections; Holocene carbon stock changes
Outcomes reported
The study synthesized literature and expert knowledge to quantify leading drivers of peatland carbon stock change during the Holocene and predicted their effects this century and beyond. It identified key uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the peatland–carbon–climate nexus and gaps in current Earth system and integrated assessment models.
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