Impacts of land use, population, and climate change on global food security

Summary

This modelling study projects global food security outcomes to 2050 under combined scenarios of climate change, population growth, and land use change. Using the FEEDME framework applied to national food balance sheets, the authors found that socio-economic pathways—particularly population growth trajectories—were the dominant drivers of future undernourishment, outweighing climate change effects on crop yields. The findings suggest that addressing population growth through improved maternal health, equitable food access, yield gap closure, and trade pattern changes are critical to preventing severe future food insecurity.

UK applicability

Whilst this is a global-scale modelling study, UK-specific implications may be limited given the UK's relative food security and modest population growth projections. However, the study's emphasis on closing yield gaps and improving food access equity remains relevant to UK food policy and trade negotiations affecting global food systems.

Key measures

Mean per capita calories; minimum dietary energy requirements (MDER); undernourishment prevalence; food security projections under RCP and SSP scenarios

Outcomes reported

The study modelled future global impacts of climate variability, population growth, and land use change on food security to 2050 using the FEEDME framework. It measured projected changes in per capita calorie availability and undernourishment prevalence across different climate and socio-economic scenarios.

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