Global projections of future cropland expansion to 2050 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage

Summary

This modelling study uses the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model to project cropland expansion to 2050 under business-as-usual scenarios and quantifies direct consequences for biodiversity and carbon storage. The analysis identifies substantial habitat losses in critical biodiversity regions and significant declines in both vegetation and soil carbon stocks, with Brazil and Mexico flagged as priority areas for intervention. The findings suggest that policy changes and enhanced natural resource protection will be necessary to mitigate projected losses.

UK applicability

Whilst this study focuses on global projections with particular emphasis on tropical and subtropical regions (Indo-Burma, Philippines, Brazil, Mexico), the methodological approach and policy conclusions may inform UK land-use planning and agricultural policy regarding the biodiversity and climate consequences of intensification or extensification of arable systems. The findings underscore the importance of UK domestic agricultural policy in avoiding habitat conversion pressures.

Key measures

Percentage of habitat loss in biodiversity hotspots (Indo-Burma, Philippines); percentage of species in AZE sites losing habitat (50%); vegetation standing carbon stock loss (13.7%); soil carbon stock loss (4.6%)

Outcomes reported

The study projected future cropland expansion under a business-as-usual scenario using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and quantified direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots, Alliance for Zero Extinction sites, and carbon stocks (both soil and vegetation). Key outcomes included estimates of habitat loss in critical regions and quantification of projected carbon losses.

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