Summary
This modelling study calculated economically optimal tax levels for red and processed meat that would internalise the health costs of non-communicable diseases attributable to consumption in 2020, estimated at USD 285 billion globally. Using coupled economic and epidemiological frameworks applied to 149 world regions, the authors found that optimal taxation would increase processed meat prices by 25% on average (ranging 1–100% by income level) and red meat prices by 4% (0.2–20%), resulting in a 16% global reduction in processed meat consumption and preventing approximately 222,000 deaths annually. The findings suggest that market-based taxation can align private consumption costs with broader societal health and economic impacts.
UK applicability
The United Kingdom, as a high-income country, would fall within the upper range of optimal processed meat tax levels (potentially exceeding 100% price increases according to the model). The findings are directly applicable to UK health policy discussions and devolved health governance frameworks, though implementation would require consideration of distributional impacts and consumer acceptance.
Key measures
Health-related costs (USD billions), optimal tax levels (percentage price increases), consumption changes (percentage reductions), deaths averted (number and percentage), and regional variation in tax impacts
Outcomes reported
The study modelled economically optimal tax levels for red and processed meat across 149 world regions and estimated the resulting impacts on consumption patterns, health costs, and non-communicable disease mortality using a coupled economic and epidemiological framework.
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