Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America

Summary

This 2018 study employs high-resolution climate modelling to project how rain-on-snow flooding—a significant hazard in western North America—will change under future climate conditions. The authors suggest that warming will shift the geographic distribution and timing of this flood hazard, with implications for water resource management and agricultural resilience in affected regions. The work contributes to understanding climate-driven changes in extreme hydrological events relevant to farming systems and food security.

UK applicability

Direct applicability to UK agriculture is limited, as rain-on-snow flooding is not a primary flood hazard in most UK regions. However, the methodological approach to projecting climate-driven changes in extreme hydrological events may inform UK water resource and agricultural adaptation planning under future climate scenarios.

Key measures

Projected frequency and spatial shifts of rain-on-snow flood events; temporal changes in flood risk; magnitude and timing of flood events under future climate scenarios

Outcomes reported

The study projected future changes in rain-on-snow flood frequency, timing, and spatial distribution across western North America using climate model simulations. It assessed how warming temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns will alter the risk profile of this flood hazard for agricultural and water resource management.

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