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Tier 4 — Narrative / commentaryPeer-reviewed

Characterizing Uncertainty of the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change

Martyn Clark, Robert L. Wilby, E. D. Gutmann, J. A. Vano, Subhrendu Gangopadhyay, Andrew W. Wood, Hayley J. Fowler, Christel Prudhomme, J. R. Arnold, L. D. Brekke

Current Climate Change Reports · 2016

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Summary

This review paper synthesises current understanding of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact studies, as suggested by the literature circa 2016. The authors examine multiple sources of uncertainty—including climate model variability, bias-correction and downscaling choices, and hydrological model parameterisation—and their relative contributions to total projection uncertainty. The paper provides a framework for characterising and communicating these uncertainties to water resource planners and policymakers.

UK applicability

UK hydrological and water resource management faces similar uncertainty challenges in climate projections. The uncertainty characterisation framework presented may inform UK climate adaptation studies for water supply and flood risk assessment, though direct applicability depends on whether UK-specific case studies were included in the review.

Key measures

Uncertainty decomposition in streamflow projections; sensitivity to climate model selection, downscaling approach, and hydrological model structure

Outcomes reported

The study characterises sources and magnitudes of uncertainty in projecting hydrological responses to climate change, examining how uncertainty cascades through climate models, downscaling methods, and hydrological models.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Climate & greenhouse gas mitigation
Study type
Narrative Review
Study design
Narrative review
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
United States
System type
Other
DOI
10.1007/s40641-016-0034-x
Catalogue ID
BFmommpl0r-iusoiq

Topic tags

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