Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

Marco Springmann, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Sherman Robinson, Tara Garnett, H Charles J Godfray, Douglas Gollin, Mike Rayner, Paola Ballón, Peter Scarborough

The Lancet · 2016

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Summary

This modelling study projected health effects of climate change on food production systems globally, integrating agricultural yield projections with nutritional and epidemiological models to estimate regional health burdens. Published in The Lancet by an interdisciplinary team, the work suggests climate change will alter food availability and composition in ways that affect population nutrition and chronic disease burden, with heterogeneous impacts across regions. The study contributes to understanding trade-offs between agricultural mitigation, food security, and human health outcomes under future climate scenarios.

UK applicability

The UK, as a temperate food-importing nation, may face particular vulnerability to yield changes in key commodity suppliers; findings on dietary adequacy and nutritional transitions are relevant to UK food policy and public health nutrition planning. Regional modelling specific to UK agricultural capacity and dietary patterns would be needed to translate global projections to domestic policy.

Key measures

Regional and global health outcomes (mortality, morbidity); dietary changes; nutrient availability; greenhouse gas emissions; food production under climate scenarios

Outcomes reported

The study modelled future food availability, nutritional composition, and associated health effects under climate change scenarios across regions. It assessed mortality and morbidity impacts linked to dietary changes induced by climate-driven shifts in crop yields and food supply.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Food security & global nutrition
Study type
Research
Study design
Modelling study
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1016/s0140-6736(15)01156-3
Catalogue ID
BFmommpma7-cbgdjn

Topic tags

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