Soil carbon sequestration potential bounded by population growth, land availability, food production, and climate change

Summary

This modelling framework for Switzerland integrates soil carbon storage, food production, and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions to assess the sustainability of three soil management approaches (cover cropping, biochar addition, agroforestry-biochar) over two centuries. Whilst technical sequestration rates of 0.30–2.3 t CO2-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ are achievable during 2020–2050, the study demonstrates that these rates decline substantially and cannot be sustained to 2100 under realistic constraints from population growth, land availability, and food system requirements. The findings emphasise that net-zero agricultural strategies must integrate soil carbon objectives with food production capacity and emissions trade-offs rather than pursuing soil carbon sequestration in isolation.

UK applicability

The methodological framework and findings on trade-offs between soil carbon sequestration and food production are broadly applicable to UK agriculture, though specific sequestration rates and limiting factors would differ given different land use patterns, climate, soil types, and population density. UK policy on net-zero strategies and agricultural carbon sequestration would benefit from similar integrated modelling that accounts for domestic food security and land constraints. UK policymakers developing net-zero strategies for agriculture may benefit from the paper's emphasis on quantifying trade-offs between soil carbon, food production, and broader greenhouse gas emissions in long-term scenarios.

Key measures

Soil carbon sequestration rates (t CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹); agricultural greenhouse gas emissions; food production capacity; soil organic carbon stocks

Outcomes reported

The study modelled soil carbon sequestration rates across three management scenarios (cover cropping, biochar addition, agroforestry-biochar) for 2020–2050 and projected sustainability to 2100 under constraints from land availability, biomass availability, and population growth. It quantified trade-offs between soil carbon goals and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in the context of food production requirements. SCS rates were found to decline substantially after 2050 under all scenarios, indicating that current sequestration potentials cannot be maintained long-term.

Topic tags