Summary
This comprehensive expert assessment synthesises literature and solicits judgement from leading peatland scientists to quantify drivers of peatland carbon dynamics and forecast shifts in the global peatland carbon balance from sink to source during the 21st century. The authors highlight critical gaps in Earth system and integrated assessment models that currently omit peatlands despite their substantial contribution to the global carbon cycle, and provide evidence-based pathways for improved model integration. The work underscores peatland science as essential to understanding climate–carbon feedbacks and mitigating climate change impacts.
UK applicability
UK peatlands (particularly in Scotland, Northern England, and Wales) represent a significant carbon store and are vulnerable to the same drivers identified in this global assessment. The findings support the need for UK climate models and land-use policy frameworks to explicitly account for peatland carbon dynamics and their sensitivity to drainage, warming, and land-use change.
Key measures
Peatland carbon balance trajectory (sink to source transition); drivers of peatland carbon stock change; model integration feasibility and uncertainty quantification
Outcomes reported
The study synthesised evidence on leading drivers of change affecting peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predicted their effects during the current century and beyond. It identified key knowledge gaps and provided recommendations for better integration of peatlands into Earth system and integrated assessment models.
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