Summary
This modelling study presents the first quantitative projections of peatland dynamics and associated greenhouse gas emissions within climate mitigation pathways consistent with the Paris Agreement. The authors demonstrate that without explicit peatland protection and restoration policy, the global land system would remain a net CO₂ source throughout the 21st century, contrary to assumptions in current mitigation models. Crucially, they show that rewetting approximately 60% of present-day degraded peatlands alongside protection of intact peatlands would allow the land system to become a net carbon sink by 2100, reconciling land-use demands with climate objectives.
UK applicability
The United Kingdom contains significant peatland resources, particularly in Scotland and the uplands, which are currently partially degraded. These findings suggest that UK peatland restoration policies, if implemented at scale, could contribute meaningfully to national climate mitigation targets and land-system carbon accounting.
Key measures
Peatland area dynamics, CO₂ and other greenhouse gas emissions from peatland drainage and peat oxidation, land-system net carbon balance (source vs. sink status), proportion of degraded peatlands requiring rewetting to achieve carbon sink status by 2100
Outcomes reported
The study used spatially explicit global land-use modelling to project peatland dynamics and associated greenhouse gas emissions under a 2 °C climate mitigation pathway through to 2100. It quantified the land-system carbon balance under different peatland policy scenarios, including protection, restoration, and business-as-usual drainage.
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