Summary
This scenario modelling study examines the land use and climate implications of four contrasting livestock futures to 2050, reflecting competing perspectives on whether sustainability depends primarily on production-side intensification or demand-side dietary change. The research finds that without significant improvements in crop yield and waste reduction, only scenarios involving replacement of animal protein with land-free artificial alternatives can fit within available cropland, though intensified livestock systems combined with 50% yield-gap closure and 50% waste reduction enable sufficiency across most pathways.
UK applicability
The study's reference baseline of North-Western European intensive livestock production makes findings directly relevant to UK policy and farm systems. The framework may inform UK food security and net-zero policy, particularly regarding the role of domestic livestock production and dietary shifts in meeting 2050 environmental targets.
Key measures
Global land use (cropland availability and requirements); greenhouse gas emissions; livestock production intensity; crop productivity; food waste levels
Outcomes reported
The study modelled global land use and greenhouse gas emissions across four contrasting livestock production futures (intensification, plant-based transition, artificial meat/dairy, and ecological leftovers production) combined with two dietary scenarios (current trends and healthy diet) to 2050. Results assessed cropland sufficiency under different combinations of yield improvements and waste reduction targets.
Topic tags
Dig deeper with Pulse AI.
Pulse AI has read the whole catalogue. Ask about this record, its theme, or how the findings apply to UK farming and policy — every answer cites the underlying studies.