Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment

Hao Zhao, Jinfeng Chang, Peter Havlík, M. van Dijk, Hugo Valin, Charlotte Janssens, Lin Ma, Zhaohai Bai, Mario Herrero, Pete Smith, Michael Obersteiner

Nature Sustainability · 2021

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Summary

This paper, published in Nature Sustainability, models China's evolving food demand to 2050 under multiple socio-economic scenarios and quantifies the implications for global agricultural trade, land-use patterns, and environmental outcomes. The authors use integrated assessment modelling to explore how demographic transitions, income growth, and dietary shifts in China will reshape domestic production needs and international commodity markets. The analysis suggests material consequences for land-use change, carbon emissions, and resource pressure, with implications for global food security and sustainability.

UK applicability

The findings are relevant to UK agricultural and trade policy, particularly as they illuminate how Chinese demand dynamics will reshape global commodity prices, land-use patterns elsewhere, and competitive pressures on UK farming. Understanding China's food system trajectories is material for UK food security resilience and supply-chain strategy.

Key measures

Food demand projections; trade flows; land-use change; greenhouse gas emissions; water use; agricultural production scenarios

Outcomes reported

The study projected China's future food demand under different scenarios and assessed the implications for global trade, land use, and environmental sustainability. It modelled how demographic and economic changes in China would reshape agricultural production and international food markets.

Theme
Policy, governance & rights
Subject
Food security & global nutrition
Study type
Research
Study design
Policy report
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
China
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1038/s41893-021-00784-6
Catalogue ID
BFmor3g9dg-gf9q3q

Topic tags

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