Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

Impacts of land use, population, and climate change on global food security

Amy Molotoks, Pete Smith, Terence P. Dawson

Food and Energy Security · 2020

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Summary

This global modelling study examined how climate variability, population growth, and land use change will jointly affect food security through 2050 using the FEEDME framework applied to national food balance sheets. The research found that socio-economic pathways—particularly population trajectories—have a larger impact on future food insecurity than climate change scenarios. The authors conclude that mitigation strategies must prioritise population-related interventions, yield gap closure, and trade pattern adjustment to prevent severe future food insecurity.

UK applicability

As a high-income country with stable population projections and advanced agricultural capacity, the United Kingdom is less directly affected by the study's main finding that rapid population growth drives food insecurity. However, the findings are relevant to UK food policy and international development assistance, particularly regarding support for countries facing acute population-driven food security challenges and the importance of closing yield gaps in lower-income regions.

Key measures

Undernourishment prevalence, mean per capita calories, minimum dietary energy requirements (MDER), food insecurity by country under RCP and SSP scenarios

Outcomes reported

The study modelled future global food security to 2050 using climate (RCP) and socio-economic (SSP) scenarios, measuring prevalence of undernourishment and per capita caloric availability at national level. Results indicated that projected population growth was the dominant driver of future food insecurity, more influential than climate change scenarios alone.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Food security & global nutrition
Study type
Research
Study design
Modelling study
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1002/fes3.261
Catalogue ID
BFmor3g9dg-lsy0mi

Topic tags

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