Summary
This integrated modelling study examines the tension between achieving the 1.5°C climate target through agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation and maintaining global food security. Using partial equilibrium modelling, the authors project that a cost-efficient global mitigation pathway would reduce food availability by 110–285 kcal per capita daily by 2050, potentially affecting 80–300 million people, but show that regionally differentiated mitigation and participation strategies can reduce these impacts whilst still contributing to climate goals.
UK applicability
The study's global framing provides context for UK agricultural policy on emissions reduction, though it does not specifically model UK-level impacts. The findings suggest that unilateral UK mitigation efforts without broader international participation could affect food costs and availability; the results support integrated approaches to emissions reduction that account for international agricultural trade and food system resilience.
Key measures
Food calorie losses per capita per day (kcal), number of undernourished people, greenhouse gas emissions reductions, agricultural production costs, food prices by region and mitigation scenario
Outcomes reported
The study modelled the food security impacts of achieving a 1.5°C climate target through agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation, estimating global calorie losses and potential increases in undernourishment by 2050. It assessed trade-offs between climate mitigation ambition, regional mitigation participation, and food availability across different production systems.
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