Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

Nuala Fitton, Peter Alexander, Nigel W. Arnell, Bojana Bajželj, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan Doelman, James Gerber, Peter Havlík, Tomoko Hasegawa, Mario Herrero, Tamás Krisztin, Hans van Meijl, Thomas Powell, Ronald D. Sands, Elke Stehfest, Paul West, Pete Smith

Global Environmental Change · 2019

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Summary

This multi-model analysis examines how future reductions in water availability could undermine agricultural productivity and threaten current land use globally. Approximately 11% of croplands and 10% of grasslands are projected to lose productive capacity due to water stress, with Africa, the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly vulnerable. The authors found that dietary shifts (reduced meat consumption and food waste) offer the most substantial buffer against anticipated land loss and food insecurity.

UK applicability

Europe is identified as a region particularly at risk from water availability changes; UK policymakers may need to consider water stress impacts on domestic agricultural productivity and trade-dependent food supply resilience. The findings on dietary intervention effectiveness are relevant to UK food policy and climate mitigation strategies.

Key measures

Percentage of croplands and grasslands at risk from water availability changes; regional vulnerability patterns; policy intervention effects on land pressures

Outcomes reported

The study quantified the proportion of global croplands (11%) and grasslands (10%) vulnerable to declining water availability under future scenarios, and evaluated policy interventions including dietary change and food waste reduction to mitigate land loss and food insecurity.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Food security & global nutrition
Study type
Research
Study design
Multi-model intercomparison study
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Mixed farming
DOI
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944
Catalogue ID
BFmor3g9dh-l1qi33

Topic tags

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