Global projections of future cropland expansion to 2050 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage

Summary

This modelling study projects cropland expansion to 2050 under business-as-usual conditions using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model, examining direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage. The analysis reveals severe projected losses: substantial habitat reduction in critical biodiversity hotspots such as Indo-Burma and the Philippines, 50% of species in Alliance for Zero Extinction sites losing part of their last remaining habitat, and losses of 13.7% of vegetation carbon stocks and 4.6% of soil carbon stocks in affected areas. The authors identify Brazil and Mexico as priority regions for both biodiversity and carbon conservation in the context of cropland expansion.

UK applicability

The study's global scope and focus on tropical and subtropical biodiversity hotspots have limited direct applicability to UK agricultural policy, though the methodology and findings underscore the importance of regulating cropland expansion internationally to mitigate climate and biodiversity impacts. UK policy frameworks addressing land-use change and agricultural expansion may benefit from considering the modelled trade-offs between food production, carbon storage, and species conservation highlighted in this research.

Key measures

Habitat loss in biodiversity hotspots and Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) sites; percentage of species losing part of remaining habitat; vegetation standing carbon stock loss (13.7%); soil carbon stock loss (4.6%); geographic prioritisation of biodiversity and carbon losses

Outcomes reported

The study projected future cropland expansion under a business-as-usual scenario using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and quantified direct impacts on habitat loss in biodiversity hotspots, endangered species ranges, and vegetation and soil carbon stocks. Key findings include substantial habitat loss in priority regions (Indo-Burma, Philippines) and quantified carbon losses from projected land-use change.

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