Summary
This modelling study uses Earth system models to project significant weakening and potential reversal of natural carbon sinks (both land and ocean) under stringent low-emissions scenarios required to meet Paris Agreement targets. The authors find that under RCP2.6, ocean and land sinks decline substantially by mid-21st century and may turn negative by mid-23rd century, with implications for the feasibility of negative emissions technologies. A new metric—the perturbation airborne fraction—is introduced to measure the effectiveness of carbon removal in the context of weakened natural sinks.
UK applicability
Findings are globally applicable and relevant to UK climate policy, particularly in assessing the realistic deployment requirements for negative emissions technologies to meet net-zero commitments. The weakening of natural sinks has implications for UK-based carbon budgeting and the reliance on nature-based solutions for climate mitigation.
Key measures
Land and ocean carbon sink strength (GtC yr⁻¹) under RCP2.6 concentration pathway for 21st and 23rd centuries; perturbation airborne fraction metric
Outcomes reported
The study used Earth system models to project the behaviour of natural carbon sinks (land and ocean) under low-emissions climate pathways to 2300, and introduced a new metric—the perturbation airborne fraction—to assess negative emissions technology effectiveness.
Topic tags
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