Summary
This global analysis examines how probabilistic meteorological forcing uncertainties affect hydrological model outputs in 289 cryosphere basins using ensemble simulations with the SUMMA and mizuRoute models forced by precipitation and temperature ensembles from EM-Earth. The study reveals that meteorological uncertainties can exceed 100% of the magnitude of output variables, with distinct scale effects across different variables and basin types, and identifies precipitation as the dominant source of uncertainty for most basins although air temperature contributions are also substantial. The findings provide quantitative insights into the propagation of meteorological data uncertainties through hydrological models and propose snow-related variables as proxies for estimating air temperature uncertainty impacts.
UK applicability
The methodology and uncertainty quantification framework are potentially applicable to UK hydrological modelling, particularly for upland and snow-influenced catchments in Scotland and Wales. However, the study focuses on cryosphere (snow/ice-dominated) basins globally, which may have limited direct relevance to predominantly temperate UK basins with lower snow persistence.
Key measures
Magnitude of uncertainties in meteorological variables (precipitation, air temperature), snow water equivalent, snowfall amount, snowfall fraction, runoff, soil water content, and energy variables; spatial distribution and scale effects of these uncertainties; relative contribution of precipitation vs. temperature uncertainty to model output uncertainty
Outcomes reported
The study quantified how uncertainties in precipitation and air temperature forcing data propagate through hydrological models (SUMMA and mizuRoute) to produce uncertainties in snow, runoff, soil water, and energy variables across 289 representative cryosphere basins. Uncertainties were characterised using ensemble meteorological data from EM-Earth with analysis of magnitude, spatial distribution, and scale effects.
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