Summary
This scenario-based modelling study projects that global livestock-derived protein demand will increase by 38% in total (14% per person) between 2020 and 2050 under a mid-range socioeconomic trajectory, with fastest growth in South Asia (49% per person) and sub-Saharan Africa (55% per person). The analysis demonstrates that consumer preference shifts (modelled as declining income elasticity) in high-income countries could reduce red meat demand per capita by 2.8%, yet this effect is strongly mediated by prices; lower global prices due to reduced demand in high-income countries would paradoxically increase red meat consumption in those same countries by 8.9%. The work highlights the complex, non-linear interactions between income, preferences, and prices in shaping future livestock food systems.
UK applicability
The findings suggest that UK dietary transitions towards lower red meat consumption depend critically on both preference shifts and price mechanisms; policy interventions targeting consumer preferences alone may be offset by price effects in a globally integrated market. The study's high-income country scenario is most directly applicable to UK conditions, indicating modest red meat demand declines are plausible under sustained preference change, though outcomes remain price-sensitive.
Key measures
Per-capita and total protein demand (% change 2020–2050) for red meat, poultry, dairy milk and eggs; income elasticity of demand; price projections; regional variation (South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, high-income countries)
Outcomes reported
The study modelled future demand for livestock-derived proteins (red meat, poultry, dairy, eggs) across three socioeconomic pathways to 2050, accounting for population growth, income changes, and consumer preference shifts. It quantified how income elasticity of demand and price dynamics interact to shape per-capita and total protein demand across regions and income country classifications.
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