Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 4 — Narrative / commentaryPeer-reviewed

The public health implications of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study

Ian Hamilton, Harry Kennard, Alice McGushin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gregor Kiesewetter, Melissa Lott, James Milner, Pallav Purohit, Peter Rafaj, Rohit Sharma, Marco Springmann, James Woodcock, Nick Watts

The Lancet Planetary Health · 2021

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Summary

This modelling study projects substantial health co-benefits from strengthening nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement across nine major economies by 2040. Compared with current policy trajectories, a sustainable pathways scenario consistent with Paris Agreement goals would prevent approximately 8.2 million annual deaths across air pollution, diet, and physical inactivity; a more ambitious health-centred climate policy scenario would yield additional benefits of nearly 2 million deaths prevented. The findings suggest that integrating health outcomes as a central objective of climate and agricultural policy could significantly increase ambition whilst delivering substantial public health gains.

UK applicability

The United Kingdom was one of the nine countries modelled in this study, so the findings are directly applicable to UK policy contexts. The results support the case for integrating health outcomes into UK climate policy and agricultural sector decarbonisation strategies.

Key measures

Annual deaths prevented by air pollution, diet-related deaths, and physical inactivity-related deaths across nine countries by 2040 under three policy scenarios

Outcomes reported

The study modelled and quantified health co-benefits of climate policies across energy, food and agriculture, and transport sectors in nine countries by 2040, measuring mortality reductions attributable to changes in air pollution, diet, and physical activity.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Food & agricultural policy
Study type
Policy
Study design
Policy modelling study
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1016/s2542-5196(20)30249-7
Catalogue ID
BFmor3ggd1-ie00c9

Topic tags

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