Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

Marco Springmann, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Sherman Robinson, Tara Garnett, H Charles J Godfray, Douglas Gollin, Mike Rayner, Paola Ballón, Peter Scarborough

The Lancet · 2016

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Summary

This modelling study, published in The Lancet, integrates climate projections, agricultural production models, and nutritional epidemiology to estimate the global and regional health consequences of climate-driven changes in food production. The research suggests that without mitigation, climate change will reshape food systems in ways that alter population-level nutrition and disease burden, with heterogeneous effects across geographies. The work contributes to understanding the interconnections between climate, agriculture, and human health outcomes.

UK applicability

Findings on regional variation in climate impacts on food security and nutrition are relevant to UK food policy, particularly regarding import dependency and dietary transitions. However, the UK's temperate climate, agricultural infrastructure, and food trade networks differ substantially from those modelled in lower-income regions most vulnerable to production shocks.

Key measures

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality rates, changes in food availability and nutrient intake by region, climate scenario impacts on crop production

Outcomes reported

The study modelled the health effects of climate-change-induced shifts in food production and availability across regions, considering changes in crop yields, nutritional composition, and dietary patterns. It estimated mortality and disease burden attributable to altered food systems under different climate scenarios.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Food security & global nutrition
Study type
Research
Study design
Modelling study
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1016/s0140-6736(15)01156-3
Catalogue ID
BFmor3ggd1-rcmpyl

Topic tags

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