Summary
This systems modelling study quantifies the public health and economic benefits of dietary transitions towards more plant-based flexitarian, vegetarian, and vegan diets through reduced air pollution from food production. Using integrated assessment models, the authors estimated that such shifts could prevent 108,000–236,000 premature deaths globally (3–6%), with particularly large relative reductions in Europe (9–21%) and North America (12–18%), whilst generating USD 0.6–1.3 trillion in additional economic output. The findings suggest that dietary incentivisation could serve as a cost-effective mitigation strategy in regions with intensive agriculture and high population density.
UK applicability
The United Kingdom, with intensive livestock and arable agriculture and high population density in southern regions, would likely benefit from the air quality improvements modelled for Europe. However, applicability of absolute mortality estimates depends on UK-specific baseline air pollution concentrations, agricultural emissions profiles, and population health vulnerability, which may differ from the European average.
Key measures
Premature mortality reductions (absolute numbers and percentage change globally and by region); economic output gains (USD trillion); air pollution concentration changes from reduced ammonia and methane emissions
Outcomes reported
The study estimated reductions in premature mortality attributable to air pollution improvements following dietary shifts towards plant-based diets, alongside quantified economic productivity gains. Regional and global burden estimates were modelled using systems-based approaches.
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