Summary
This modelling study integrates agricultural labour inventories with biophysical food-system models to project labour implications of transitioning to healthy and sustainable diets globally. The analysis reveals that plant-based dietary shifts could reduce global agricultural labour requirements by 5–28% depending on dietary pattern, though regional heterogeneity is substantial: countries with dominant livestock sectors show reductions, whilst those increasing horticultural production may face labour increases. The findings are relevant to policy development reconciling dietary sustainability goals with agricultural employment transitions.
UK applicability
As a high-income country with substantial mechanised agriculture and dominant livestock production, the United Kingdom would likely experience net labour reductions under plant-based dietary transitions, consistent with the global pattern in livestock-dominated nations. However, the projected increased demand for fruits and vegetables could create employment opportunities in horticulture, relevant to UK agricultural restructuring discussions.
Key measures
Agricultural labour requirements (absolute and percentage change); labour cost changes as percentage of gross domestic product; labour distribution by food group and country; dietary patterns modelled (flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian, vegan)
Outcomes reported
The study modelled changes in agricultural labour requirements across 179 countries under different dietary scenarios (flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian, vegan) compared to business-as-usual 2030 projections. It quantified the global and regional impacts on labour demand, labour costs, and the distribution of employment across food groups.
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