Summary
This modelling study addresses the critical challenge of accounting for soil carbon sequestration as a climate mitigation strategy, particularly where reversibility is a concern. By combining soil carbon scenarios with radiative forcing calculations over extended timescales, Leifeld and Keel demonstrate that even non-permanent CO2 removals provide net cooling, though substantially less than permanent removals. The authors propose a quantitative framework based on average annual carbon balance to enable unbiased assessment of soil carbon mitigation projects, with potential application to climate policy and carbon markets.
UK applicability
The methodology is geographically neutral and applicable to UK agricultural systems where soil carbon sequestration is promoted as a climate mitigation tool. The findings are particularly relevant to UK carbon market schemes and agricultural policy frameworks that need to account for reversibility risk in soil carbon projects.
Key measures
Radiative forcing (watts per square metre); soil organic carbon accumulation and loss scenarios; atmospheric CO2 impulse response functions; time-integrated forcing effects over 500 years
Outcomes reported
The study quantified the radiative forcing (cooling effect) generated by soil carbon sinks over a 500-year time horizon, comparing reversible (non-permanent) and non-reversible (permanent) carbon removal scenarios. Results demonstrated that average annual soil organic carbon balance is the primary determinant of average radiative forcing, independent of sequestration rates or sink longevity.
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