Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?

Summary

This integrated modelling study assesses the tension between achieving 1.5°C climate stabilisation targets and maintaining food security in the land use sector. Using a global partial equilibrium framework, the authors find that cost-efficient mitigation to 1.5°C could reduce global food availability by 110–285 kcal per capita daily by 2050, potentially increasing undernourishment by 80–300 million people, though outcomes vary substantially by region and depend critically on global participation in mitigation commitments.

UK applicability

The findings are globally-oriented and may have limited direct applicability to UK-specific conditions, though they highlight the importance of considering food security implications of climate policy at the national level. UK policymakers developing climate and agricultural strategies should consider how mitigation requirements might affect domestic food production costs and import dependencies.

Key measures

Global food calorie losses (kcal per capita per day in 2050); projected rise in undernourished populations; regional variations in food security impacts; agricultural production costs and food prices under different mitigation and participation scenarios

Outcomes reported

The study modelled the implications of cost-efficient greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture to limit global warming to 1.5°C, quantifying impacts on food availability and security. Results indicated projected calorie losses per capita and potential increases in global undernourishment by 2050 under different mitigation scenarios.

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