Summary
This modelling study projects substantial global cropland expansion to 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario and quantifies direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage. Using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model, the authors identify severe consequences including significant habitat loss in biodiversity hotspots (notably Indo-Burma and the Philippines), threatened species ranges in AZE sites, and losses of 13.7% of vegetation carbon and 4.6% of soil carbon in affected areas. The analysis identifies Brazil and Mexico as priority regions for both biodiversity and carbon conservation from cropland expansion.
UK applicability
As a global modelling study, findings are not UK-specific, but the methodological approach and emphasis on biodiversity hotspots may inform UK land-use policy discussions around agricultural intensity, habitat protection, and carbon accounting in national climate commitments.
Key measures
Projected cropland area expansion; habitat loss in biodiversity hotspots and Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) sites; vegetation standing carbon stock loss (percentage); soil carbon stock loss (percentage); geographic prioritisation of impacts by region
Outcomes reported
The study projected future cropland expansion under a business-as-usual scenario and quantified direct impacts on habitat loss in biodiversity hotspots, endangered species ranges, and carbon stocks in vegetation and soil across regions.
Topic tags
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