The impact of population growth and climate change on food security in Africa: looking ahead to 2050

Summary

This modelling study used the FEEDME framework to assess how population growth and climate change will affect food security across 44 African countries by 2050. The findings indicate that rapid population growth, rather than climate change alone, is the dominant driver of projected food insecurity and undernourishment. The authors propose adaptation strategies including yield gap closure through sustainable intensification and increased trade and aid agreements as critical measures to prevent future food insecurity.

UK applicability

While this study focuses on African food systems and constraints, the methodological approach to integrating population and climate projections into food security assessments may be relevant to UK policy discussions on global food security and trade partnerships. The findings emphasise the primacy of population dynamics, which is pertinent to understanding international food demand pressures affecting UK food imports and agricultural policy.

Key measures

Food availability; undernourishment prevalence; population growth projections; climate change scenarios (IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios)

Outcomes reported

The study modelled the impacts of future population growth and climate change on food availability and undernourishment prevalence across 44 African countries to 2050. Results indicate projected rapid population growth will be the leading driver of food insecurity and widespread undernourishment, with climate change playing a secondary role.

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