Summary
This scenario-based modelling study projects that global livestock-derived protein demand will increase 14% per capita and 38% in aggregate by 2050 under mid-range socioeconomic assumptions, with fastest growth in South Asia (49% per capita) and sub-Saharan Africa (55% per capita). The analysis demonstrates that consumer preferences—approximated via income elasticity—and prices are critical demand drivers, such that declining income elasticity in high-income countries could reduce red meat demand by 2.8%, but this effect is offset by global price reductions if elasticity declines occur elsewhere.
UK applicability
The findings are relevant to UK food policy and supply chain planning, particularly regarding the projected contraction of red meat demand in high-income countries under preference shifts. However, the study focuses on global aggregate trends and regional projections, so sector-specific implications for UK livestock farming and dietary guidance would require additional national-level analysis.
Key measures
Per capita and total protein demand (percentage change 2020–2050); income elasticity of demand; regional variation in demand trajectories; price effects on demand
Outcomes reported
The study projected global livestock protein demand trajectories to 2050 under shared socioeconomic pathways, modelling how income growth and consumer preferences in different regions drive changes in demand for red meat, poultry, dairy, and eggs. It quantified differential demand elasticities and price sensitivities across high-income and lower-income countries.
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