Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

Marco Springmann, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Sherman Robinson, Tara Garnett, H Charles J Godfray, Douglas Gollin, Mike Rayner, Paola Ballón, Peter Scarborough

The Lancet · 2016

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Summary

This modelling study, published in The Lancet, projects the health implications of climate change on global food production through 2050 under multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The authors integrated agronomic, economic, and epidemiological models to estimate how shifts in crop yields, food prices, and dietary composition would affect population-level nutrition and diet-related disease burden across regions. The work suggests climate change poses substantial risks to human health through its effects on food systems, with implications for global nutrition policy and adaptation strategies.

UK applicability

As a high-income nation with diversified food imports, the United Kingdom faces health risks primarily through global food price volatility and supply disruption rather than local production collapse. Findings may inform UK climate adaptation planning, trade policy, and public health nutrition strategies, particularly regarding food security resilience and dietary transition planning.

Key measures

Health outcomes including mortality and morbidity attributable to changes in food availability and dietary intake; nutritional adequacy metrics; regional variation in health effects

Outcomes reported

The study modelled how climate change will affect future food production and assessed the resulting health effects across global and regional populations. It evaluated nutritional adequacy, diet-related mortality, and health burden under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Food security & global nutrition
Study type
Research
Study design
Modelling study
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1016/s0140-6736(15)01156-3
Catalogue ID
BFmou2mlyw-889cmk

Topic tags

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