The lost opportunity from insufficient pollinators for global food supplies and human health

Summary

This modelling study quantified the global health and economic consequences of inadequate pollination by estimating crop yield gaps and lost consumption of pollination-dependent foods across countries. The authors found that insufficient pollinator populations result in 3–5% annual losses of fruit, vegetable, and nut production globally, corresponding to approximately 427,000 excess deaths annually from non-communicable diseases associated with reduced healthy food intake. The burden is unevenly distributed: whilst low-income countries experience greater production losses and economic impacts, the health burden from reduced food consumption is concentrated in middle- and high-income countries with higher baseline rates of non-communicable disease.

UK applicability

The United Kingdom, as a high-income country, would likely experience health impacts from insufficient pollination through reduced consumption of fruits, vegetables, and nuts despite global trade buffering direct production losses. The findings underscore the need for UK agricultural policy to prioritise pollinator-friendly practices to support both domestic food production resilience and global food security.

Key measures

Annual loss of fruit, vegetable, and nut production (percentage); excess annual deaths attributable to insufficient pollination (number with 95% uncertainty interval); economic value of crop production loss (percentage) by country

Outcomes reported

The study quantified the global crop yield gap attributable to inadequate pollination and estimated the resulting excess mortality from lost consumption of pollination-dependent healthy foods. Economic losses in crop production value were also estimated for three case-study countries.

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