Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment

Summary

This multimodel assessment evaluated the potential of four transformative food systems measures—increased agricultural productivity, halved food loss and waste, dietary shifts towards the EAT-Lancet healthy reference diet, and economy-wide climate mitigation aligned with 1·5°C warming limits—both individually and in combination through 2050. Using an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models and a decomposition framework, the study quantified the magnitude, uncertainty, and interactions between these measures to identify complementarities and trade-offs. The findings indicate that bundling these measures yields significant reductions in emissions and agricultural land use, with the analysis revealing important synergies and trade-offs when multiple interventions are implemented simultaneously.

UK applicability

The study's global multimodel framework provides evidence on food systems transformation pathways relevant to UK policy objectives around net-zero agriculture, sustainable diets, and food security. However, as a global assessment using middle-of-the-road socioeconomic assumptions, it requires contextualisation to UK-specific conditions, agricultural structure, dietary patterns, and climate mitigation targets to inform domestic policy implementation.

Key measures

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction, agricultural land use change (percentage points), food security (hunger risk), and interaction effects between bundled measures

Outcomes reported

The study quantified the individual and combined impacts of four key food systems transformation measures (agricultural productivity increases, food loss and waste reduction, dietary shifts towards healthier patterns, and climate mitigation policies) on hunger, environmental sustainability, emissions, and agricultural land use through 2050 using an ensemble of ten global economic models.

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