Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

A food system transformation pathway reconciles 1.5 °C global warming with improved health, environment and social inclusion

Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Felicitas Beier, Florian Humpenöder, Debbora Leip, Michael Crawford, David M. Chen, Patrick von Jeetze, Marco Springmann, Bjoern Soergel, Zebedee Nicholls, Jessica Strefler, Jared Lewis, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Kristine Karstens, Isabelle Weindl, Miodrag Stevanović, Patrick Rein, P. Sauer, Abhijeet Mishra, Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Alexandre C. Köberle, Xiaoxi Wang, Vartika Singh, Claudia Hunecke, Quitterie Collignon, Pepijn Schreinemachers, Simon Dietz, Ravi Kanbur, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze‐Campen, Alexander Popp

Nature Food · 2025

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Summary

This global food and land system modelling study quantifies how 23 combined food system measures can simultaneously address climate change, public health, environmental degradation and social inclusion through to 2050. The analysis demonstrates that whilst individual measures involve trade-offs, their combination can reduce these tensions and realise co-benefits, with combined intervention estimated to reduce yearly mortality by 182 million life years and nearly halve nitrogen surplus. The research suggests that achieving the 1.5 °C climate target is feasible when food system measures are coupled with complementary actions outside agriculture.

UK applicability

The findings are globally derived and provide a framework applicable to UK policy-making around food system transformation. However, the study's specific measure recommendations and trade-off analyses would require contextualisation to UK agro-ecological conditions, supply chains, consumer preferences and existing regulatory landscape to inform practical implementation.

Key measures

Yearly mortality reduction (life years), nitrogen surplus reduction, absolute poverty effects, climate mitigation potential (1.5 °C alignment), and multi-dimensional outcome indicators across health, environment, social and economic domains

Outcomes reported

The study quantified the impact of 23 food system measures on 15 outcome indicators spanning public health, environment, social inclusion and economy through 2050. Key outputs included estimated mortality reduction, nitrogen surplus changes, and poverty effects when measures are combined.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Food & agricultural policy
Study type
Research
Study design
Systems modelling study
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1038/s43016-025-01268-y
Catalogue ID
BFmou2mlz8-lfgcgc

Topic tags

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