Summary
This modelling study estimates how shifts toward healthy and sustainable dietary patterns would alter global agricultural labour demand across 179 countries. The authors paired a farm-level labour inventory with biophysical food system modelling to project labour implications of flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian, and vegan diets relative to 2030 business-as-usual scenarios. The findings suggest substantial but geographically uneven labour reductions (5–28% globally depending on diet type), with significant implications for agricultural employment policy and just transition planning.
UK applicability
The UK, as a net food importer with relatively low agricultural employment, may experience different labour market pressures than countries with large livestock sectors; however, the study's findings on horticultural labour demand intensification in some countries could inform UK horticulture and domestic food production policy, particularly under post-Brexit self-sufficiency considerations.
Key measures
Agricultural labour requirements per food group and region; percentage changes in global labour demand under different dietary scenarios; labour cost changes as proportion of gross domestic product; country-level variation in labour requirement shifts
Outcomes reported
The study quantified agricultural labour requirements across 179 countries under multiple dietary scenarios (flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian, vegan) compared with business-as-usual projections for 2030. It modelled how transitions to plant-based diets would affect both the total volume and geographical distribution of agricultural employment and associated labour costs.
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