Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment

Hao Zhao, Jinfeng Chang, Peter Havlík, M. van Dijk, Hugo Valin, Charlotte Janssens, Lin Ma, Zhaohai Bai, Mario Herrero, Pete Smith, Michael Obersteiner

Nature Sustainability · 2021

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Summary

This 2021 analysis in Nature Sustainability projects China's food demand trajectories to 2050 under alternative dietary and productivity scenarios, with implications for global trade and environmental sustainability. The work, authored by an international consortium spanning agricultural economics, climate modelling, and land-system research, suggests that China's future food security will depend critically on domestic productivity gains, dietary composition shifts, and international trade relationships. The findings contribute to understanding how changing consumption patterns in a major global food consumer could reshape international markets and land-use pressures.

UK applicability

As a major trading partner and food importer, the United Kingdom would face indirect effects through shifts in global commodity prices, trade flows, and competition for resource-intensive products. UK policy on domestic food security and agricultural resilience may benefit from understanding China's projected demand trajectories and their systemic feedbacks on global markets.

Key measures

Projected food demand by commodity; domestic production capacity; trade balances; land-use change; greenhouse gas emissions; nutritional adequacy

Outcomes reported

The study projected China's future food demand under different scenarios and modelled the implications for domestic agricultural production, international trade patterns, and environmental outcomes including land use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Theme
Policy, governance & rights
Subject
Food security & global nutrition
Study type
Research
Study design
Policy report
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
China
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1038/s41893-021-00784-6
Catalogue ID
BFmovbmhmv-e1j05r

Topic tags

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