Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America

K. N. Musselman, Flavio Lehner, Kyoko Ikeda, Martyn Clark, Andreas F. Prein, Changhai Liu, Mike Barlage, Roy Rasmussen

Nature Climate Change · 2018

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Summary

This 2018 Nature Climate Change study employed high-resolution climate model projections to quantify how rain-on-snow flood risk—a compound hazard combining rainfall and rapid snowmelt—will shift geographically and temporally across western North America under anthropogenic warming. The modelling results suggest substantial changes in flood frequency, intensity and seasonal timing in snow-dominated watersheds, with implications for water security and agricultural resilience in vulnerable regions. The findings contribute evidence for climate adaptation planning in hydrologically sensitive areas affected by this flood hazard.

UK applicability

Rain-on-snow floods are not a primary flood risk in most UK lowland agricultural regions. However, findings may have limited relevance to upland UK farming systems (Scotland, Wales, northern England) where snowmelt-driven flooding occurs, though UK snow patterns and rainfall–snow dynamics differ substantially from western North American conditions.

Key measures

Projected shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk; geographic and temporal changes in flood frequency, intensity and seasonal occurrence under climate scenarios

Outcomes reported

The study projected changes in rain-on-snow flood frequency, intensity, and seasonal timing across snow-dominated watersheds in western North America under anthropogenic climate warming, as suggested by high-resolution climate model simulations.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Climate & greenhouse gas mitigation
Study type
Research
Study design
Modelling study
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
United States
System type
Other
DOI
10.1038/s41558-018-0236-4
Catalogue ID
BFmovbmntb-uyw7sk

Topic tags

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