Summary
This modelling study projects that global protein demand from livestock will increase by 14% per person and 38% in total by 2050 under mid-range socioeconomic scenarios, with the fastest regional growth in South Asia (49%) and sub-Saharan Africa (55%). The analysis demonstrates that demand trajectories in high-income countries are sensitive to both income elasticity of demand (a proxy for consumer preferences) and commodity prices, with declining red meat demand in wealthy regions contingent on substantial shifts in consumer preference elasticity and vulnerable to offsetting price effects.
UK applicability
As a high-income country, the United Kingdom's livestock demand trajectory would likely follow the declining per capita trend modelled for wealthy nations, contingent on shifts in consumer preferences away from red meat. The global price dynamics identified in the study—whereby reduced demand in high-income countries lowers global prices and stimulates demand elsewhere—have relevance to UK food policy discussions around dietary guidance, trade relationships, and environmental targets.
Key measures
Per capita and total protein demand for red meat, poultry, dairy milk and eggs; percentage change in demand 2020–2050; income elasticities of demand; price elasticity effects; regional variation in demand growth
Outcomes reported
The study used scenario-based modelling to project changes in global demand for red meat, poultry, dairy milk and eggs between 2020 and 2050 under different trajectories of population growth, income change and consumer preferences. It quantified per capita and total protein demand increases, with regional variation, and examined the sensitivity of demand to income elasticity and price changes.
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