Summary
This modelling study calculated economically optimal tax levels for red and processed meat in 149 world regions to internalise health costs associated with chronic disease mortality. Using a coupled framework integrating comparative risk assessment and economic data, the authors estimated that optimal taxation would increase processed meat prices by 25% on average (1–100% depending on income level) and reduce global attributable deaths by 9% (222,000 deaths) whilst decreasing health costs by USD 41 billion annually. The findings suggest that market-based taxation calibrated to health impacts could be an effective policy lever for reducing non-communicable disease burden at global scale.
UK applicability
The United Kingdom, as a high-income country, falls within the model's scope and would likely experience tax increases at the upper end of the ranges modelled (over 100% for processed meat). The study provides quantitative policy evidence relevant to UK health and fiscal policy discussions, though implementation would depend on domestic political and economic considerations.
Key measures
Optimal tax levels by region; price increases; consumption changes; attributable deaths prevented; health cost savings; global burden estimates in USD and mortality figures
Outcomes reported
The study modelled economically optimal tax levels for red and processed meat across 149 world regions and estimated the impacts on consumption, non-communicable disease mortality, and health costs. It quantified the global health-related costs attributable to red and processed meat consumption and the potential mortality and cost reductions under optimal taxation scenarios.
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