Summary
This integrated modelling study, published in The Lancet in 2016, projects how climate change will alter global crop productivity and food supply composition through mid-century, with cascading effects on human nutrition and health outcomes. Using coupled crop and health models, the authors estimate regional variation in impacts on undernutrition and non-communicable disease burden, accounting for changes in crop yields, food prices, and nutritional quality. The work suggests that climate change poses substantial risks to global nutrition security, with unequal geographical distribution of health burden.
UK applicability
As a global modelling study, findings are applicable to UK food security and dietary health primarily through international trade dependencies and food price volatility. The study's projections for European agricultural regions and linkages between global crop production and UK food imports may inform UK climate adaptation policy, though region-specific modelling would be needed to assess direct UK health impacts.
Key measures
Crop yield changes by region and crop type; food price projections; dietary intake patterns; health burden estimates (undernutrition, diet-related non-communicable diseases); disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and related health metrics by region
Outcomes reported
The study modelled projected changes in crop yields, food prices, and dietary composition under climate change scenarios to 2050, and estimated downstream health impacts including changes in undernutrition prevalence and non-communicable disease burden. Regional variation in health outcomes was quantified accounting for nutritional quality changes and price-driven dietary shifts.
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