Summary
This global multimodel assessment applied ten state-of-the-art economic models to evaluate four key transformation measures for food systems: increased agricultural productivity, halved food loss and waste, dietary shifts towards healthier patterns (EAT-Lancet aligned), and economy-wide climate mitigation aligned with 1.5°C warming limits. The study examined these measures both in isolation and as a bundled scenario from 2020 to 2050, with decomposition analysis revealing complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple interventions are implemented simultaneously. The findings suggest that bundled approaches offer synergistic potential for addressing hunger risk, environmental sustainability, and planetary health, though specific quantitative outcomes were truncated in the available abstract.
UK applicability
The study's global modelling framework and emphasis on bundled policy measures are relevant to UK food systems strategy, particularly for aligning with Net Zero 2050 targets and the Food Security Report requirements. However, the results are driven by middle-of-the-road socioeconomic pathways and may require downscaling and localisation to reflect UK agricultural capacity, dietary baselines, and policy instruments.
Key measures
Greenhouse gas emissions reductions, agricultural land use changes, food security impacts, dietary alignment with EAT-Lancet reference diet, economic outcomes modelled across ten global economic models
Outcomes reported
The study quantified the magnitude and uncertainty of impacts from four key food systems transformation measures (agricultural productivity, food loss and waste reduction, dietary shifts towards healthier patterns, and climate mitigation policies) both individually and in combination across 2020–2050. It assessed complementarities and trade-offs between measures through decomposition analysis distinguishing individual, total, and interaction effects.
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