Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

A food system transformation pathway reconciles 1.5 °C global warming with improved health, environment and social inclusion

Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Felicitas Beier, Florian Humpenöder, Debbora Leip, Michael Crawford, David M. Chen, Patrick von Jeetze, Marco Springmann, Bjoern Soergel, Zebedee Nicholls, Jessica Strefler, Jared Lewis, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Kristine Karstens, Isabelle Weindl, Miodrag Stevanović, Patrick Rein, P. Sauer, Abhijeet Mishra, Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Alexandre C. Köberle, Xiaoxi Wang, Vartika Singh, Claudia Hunecke, Quitterie Collignon, Pepijn Schreinemachers, Simon Dietz, Ravi Kanbur, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze‐Campen, Alexander Popp

Nature Food · 2025

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Summary

This global modelling study applies an integrated food and land system framework to evaluate how 23 food system measures—individually and in combination—contribute to simultaneous improvements in public health, environmental protection, social equity and economic outcomes to 2050. Although individual measures entail trade-offs, the authors demonstrate that combining all measures could avert 182 million life-years of annual mortality whilst nearly halving nitrogen surplus and mitigating poverty effects, with joint efforts across food and non-food sectors capable of meeting the 1.5 °C climate target.

UK applicability

The study's global modelling provides a systems-level evidence base for UK food policy integration, particularly regarding trade-offs between domestic environmental measures and international development. The findings support evidence-based prioritisation of combined measures over isolated interventions, though UK-specific pathway analysis would require disaggregated modelling of domestic food production, imports and dietary patterns.

Key measures

Annual mortality (life-years), nitrogen surplus, absolute poverty rates, greenhouse gas emissions, climate target feasibility

Outcomes reported

The study quantified the impact of 23 food system measures on 15 outcome indicators spanning public health, environment, social inclusion and economics through 2050. Modelling estimated effects on annual mortality, nitrogen surplus, poverty, and feasibility of achieving 1.5 °C climate targets.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Food & agricultural policy
Study type
Research
Study design
Modelling study / systems analysis
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1038/s43016-025-01268-y
Catalogue ID
BFmovbmp8a-xw8mc3

Topic tags

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