Global projections of future cropland expansion to 2050 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage

Summary

This modelling study projects cropland expansion to 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model, with explicit focus on direct impacts to biodiversity and carbon storage. The authors quantify substantial habitat loss in globally significant biodiversity hotspots (particularly Indo-Burma and the Philippines) and estimate that approximately 50% of species in Alliance for Zero Extinction sites would lose part of their last remaining habitat. The study also projects losses of 13.7% of vegetation carbon stocks and 4.6% of soil carbon stocks in affected areas, with Brazil and Mexico identified as priority regions for both biodiversity and carbon conservation.

UK applicability

Whilst this global modelling study does not directly assess UK-specific cropland expansion, its findings on ecosystem service losses and carbon impacts are relevant to UK agricultural and environmental policy. The quantified risks to global biodiversity and carbon storage inform debates around UK land-use policy, trade-offs between domestic food production and international nature conservation, and the carbon footprint of imported agricultural commodities.

Key measures

Habitat loss in biodiversity hotspots and Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) sites; proportion of species losing last remaining habitat; vegetation standing carbon stock loss (percentage); soil carbon stock loss (percentage)

Outcomes reported

The study projected future cropland expansion using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and quantified direct impacts on habitat loss in biodiversity hotspots, endangered species ranges, and carbon stocks (both vegetation and soil). Specific losses were estimated for biodiversity hotspots such as Indo-Burma and the Philippines, as well as quantified global carbon losses under a business-as-usual scenario.

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