Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment

Hao Zhao, Jinfeng Chang, Peter Havlík, M. van Dijk, Hugo Valin, Charlotte Janssens, Lin Ma, Zhaohai Bai, Mario Herrero, Pete Smith, Michael Obersteiner

Nature Sustainability · 2021

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Summary

This modelling study examines how China's evolving food demand—driven by demographic and economic change—will reshape domestic agricultural production and international trade patterns through to mid-century, with implications for global food security and environmental sustainability. The authors integrate demand projections with agricultural systems modelling to assess trade-offs between domestic production intensification, land-use expansion, and import dependence. The findings as suggested by the title highlight the interlinkage between China's food system transformation and global agricultural and environmental outcomes.

UK applicability

The study's projections of China's growing food import demand and production constraints may inform UK trade policy and agricultural strategy, particularly regarding export opportunities and supply chain resilience for high-value products. The environmental footprint analysis could inform bilateral sustainability standards and supply-chain due diligence frameworks.

Key measures

Projected food demand by commodity type; agricultural production capacity; trade balances; land-use change; greenhouse gas emissions; environmental footprints

Outcomes reported

The study projected China's future food demand across multiple scenarios and modelled the implications for domestic agricultural production, international trade flows, and environmental pressures including land use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Theme
Policy, governance & rights
Subject
Food security & global nutrition
Study type
Research
Study design
Policy modelling study
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
China
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1038/s41893-021-00784-6
Catalogue ID
BFmovi23dp-oocff8

Topic tags

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