Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America

Summary

This peer-reviewed modelling study (2018) applied high-resolution climate projections to quantify how rain-on-snow flood hazards—a critical risk in mountainous agricultural regions of western North America—are likely to intensify and shift geographically and seasonally through the 21st century. The authors found that ROS flood events are projected to increase in frequency whilst shifting to higher elevations and earlier in the season as regional climate warms. The work contributes to understanding climate-driven hydrological changes relevant to farming systems reliant on snowmelt irrigation, flood-prone agricultural lands, and water infrastructure planning.

UK applicability

Direct applicability to UK agriculture is limited, as rain-on-snow flooding is a secondary concern in most British farming regions given the UK's lower relief and more maritime climate. However, the methodological approach and implications for understanding climate-driven hydrological extremes may inform UK flood risk assessment and water management planning for upland and moorland agricultural systems.

Key measures

Frequency and spatial-temporal shifts in rain-on-snow flood events; projected changes in flood risk across elevation zones and geographic regions; seasonal timing of ROS hazards

Outcomes reported

The study projected changes in rain-on-snow (ROS) flood frequency, magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonal timing across western North America through the 21st century using high-resolution climate modelling. Findings indicate implications for water resource management, irrigation-dependent agricultural systems, and flood-prone farming regions.

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