Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

Marco Springmann, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Sherman Robinson, Tara Garnett, H Charles J Godfray, Douglas Gollin, Mike Rayner, Paola Ballón, Peter Scarborough

The Lancet · 2016

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Summary

This modelling study, published in The Lancet, integrates agricultural and health impact projections to estimate how climate-driven changes in food production will affect human health outcomes globally and regionally by mid-century. The work bridges agricultural yield forecasts with nutritional epidemiology to quantify potential shifts in diet-related disease burden, offering evidence on the health stakes of climate adaptation in food systems.

UK applicability

The findings provide a global context for UK food security and public health policy, particularly regarding import dependencies and dietary shifts. However, specific applicability to UK conditions depends on how the modelling weighted temperate-zone production changes and UK dietary patterns.

Key measures

Regional and global health outcomes (as suggested by mortality and morbidity from diet-related disease); food production and availability under climate scenarios; nutritional changes in crops

Outcomes reported

The study modelled future food production under climate change scenarios and assessed resulting health effects across global regions, examining changes in food availability, nutritional composition, and diet-related disease burden.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Food security & global nutrition
Study type
Research
Study design
Modelling study
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1016/s0140-6736(15)01156-3
Catalogue ID
BFmovi2bj3-tddzs1

Topic tags

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