Summary
This modelling study assesses the food security trade-offs inherent in achieving agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation consistent with the 1.5°C climate target. Using integrated economic and land-use frameworks, the authors demonstrate that cost-efficient global mitigation scenarios produce substantial calorie deficits and increased undernourishment, particularly in regions with high agricultural emissions intensity; however, regional mitigation strategies and differential participation in global agreements significantly alter these outcomes.
UK applicability
As a developed Annex I nation with lower agricultural emissions intensity per unit output, the United Kingdom would likely experience smaller food security impacts from the modelled mitigation scenarios than non-Annex I countries. However, the findings underscore the importance of UK engagement in international climate agreements to avoid inefficient mitigation that raises global food prices and affects domestic food affordability and access.
Key measures
Global food calorie losses (kcal per capita per day in 2050); projected undernourishment (millions of people); regional agricultural production costs and food prices; greenhouse gas emissions reductions by sector and geography
Outcomes reported
The study modelled the effects of cost-efficient agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation required to limit global warming to 1.5°C, quantifying impacts on food availability and undernourishment. Results projected global food calorie losses of 110–285 kcal per capita daily by 2050 and estimated rises in undernourishment affecting 80–300 million people, with substantial regional variation dependent on mitigation participation and land-use emissions profiles.
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