Summary
This modelling study used the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model to project cropland expansion to 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario and quantify direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage. The analysis identified severe threats to biodiversity hotspots (particularly Indo-Burma and the Philippines) and found that 50% of species in Alliance for Zero Extinction sites would lose critical habitat, whilst vegetation and soil carbon stocks would decline by 13.7% and 4.6% respectively in affected regions. The authors conclude that policy intervention and enhanced natural resource protection will be necessary to prevent projected losses.
UK applicability
Whilst this global modelling study does not specifically address UK cropland expansion, its findings on the biodiversity and carbon implications of land-use change to cropland are relevant to UK agricultural policy and land-use planning, particularly regarding overseas land acquisitions by UK-based agricultural interests and the carbon footprint implications of UK food supply chains dependent on global commodity crops.
Key measures
Projected cropland expansion area; habitat loss in biodiversity hotspots and AZE sites; percentage of endangered and critically endangered species affected; vegetation standing carbon stock loss (13.7%); soil carbon stock loss (4.6%)
Outcomes reported
The study projected future cropland expansion under a business-as-usual scenario using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and quantified direct impacts on habitat loss in biodiversity hotspots, species extinction risk in Alliance for Zero Extinction sites, and losses of vegetation and soil carbon stocks. Specific findings included habitat loss in regions such as Indo-Burma and the Philippines, with 50% of species in AZE sites projected to lose part of their last remaining habitat, alongside 13.7% loss of vegetation carbon and 4.6% loss of soil carbon in affected areas.
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