Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment

Hao Zhao, Jinfeng Chang, Peter Havlík, M. van Dijk, Hugo Valin, Charlotte Janssens, Lin Ma, Zhaohai Bai, Mario Herrero, Pete Smith, Michael Obersteiner

Nature Sustainability · 2021

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Summary

This modelling study projects China's food demand trajectories to 2050 under multiple socioeconomic scenarios and traces the implications for global agricultural markets, trade flows, and environmental outcomes. The analysis integrates economic demand modelling with global agricultural systems assessment, suggesting that dietary transitions and consumption growth in China will substantially alter international agricultural trade and land-use pressures. The work addresses the interconnection between China's domestic food security, global market dynamics, and environmental sustainability in the mid-21st century.

UK applicability

As a global trade and agricultural systems analysis, the findings are relevant to UK policy makers evaluating future export markets, supply chain resilience, and alignment with international agricultural trade agreements. The study's projections of global land-use shifts may inform UK assessments of domestic food production capacity and import dependency under shifting global demand.

Key measures

Food demand projections by commodity; trade volumes and patterns; land-use change; environmental impacts (as suggested by authorship including environmental modelling expertise)

Outcomes reported

The study modelled China's future food demand across multiple development scenarios to 2050 and assessed the corresponding implications for global agricultural trade patterns and environmental sustainability. The analysis evaluated how dietary shifts and rising per capita consumption in China would reshape global land use and food security.

Theme
Policy, governance & rights
Subject
Food security & global nutrition
Study type
Research
Study design
Policy report
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1038/s41893-021-00784-6
Catalogue ID
BFmowc2b4w-bf29cb

Topic tags

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