Summary
This modelling study employed the FEEDME framework to project food security outcomes across 44 African countries to 2050, accounting for population growth and climate change scenarios based on IPCC emissions projections. The analysis reveals that rapid population growth is the primary driver of projected food insecurity and undernourishment across Africa, whilst climate change effects were found to contribute minimally to the change in outcomes. The authors propose adaptation strategies including yield gap closure through sustainable intensification and expanded trade and aid agreements as critical measures to prevent widespread future food insecurity.
UK applicability
This study focuses on African food systems and population dynamics, with limited direct applicability to UK conditions where food security is primarily shaped by trade, market access and dietary choice rather than absolute production constraints. However, the methodology and findings regarding population-driven food demand pressures may inform UK engagement with African agricultural development and international food security policy.
Key measures
Undernourishment prevalence projections under different population growth and climate change scenarios; food availability assessments across 44 African countries
Outcomes reported
The study modelled the impacts of future population growth and climate change on food availability and undernourishment prevalence across 44 African countries by 2050. Results indicate that projected population growth is the dominant driver of future food insecurity and undernourishment, with climate change having minimal additional impact in the scenarios examined.
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