Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

The impact of population growth and climate change on food security in Africa: looking ahead to 2050

Charlotte Hall, Terence P. Dawson, Jennie I. Macdiarmid, Robin Matthews, Pete Smith

International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability · 2017

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Summary

This modelling study employed the FEEDME framework to project food security outcomes across 44 African countries to 2050, accounting for population growth and climate change scenarios based on IPCC emissions projections. The analysis reveals that rapid population growth is the primary driver of projected food insecurity and undernourishment across Africa, whilst climate change effects were found to contribute minimally to the change in outcomes. The authors propose adaptation strategies including yield gap closure through sustainable intensification and expanded trade and aid agreements as critical measures to prevent widespread future food insecurity.

UK applicability

This study focuses on African food systems and population dynamics, with limited direct applicability to UK conditions where food security is primarily shaped by trade, market access and dietary choice rather than absolute production constraints. However, the methodology and findings regarding population-driven food demand pressures may inform UK engagement with African agricultural development and international food security policy.

Key measures

Undernourishment prevalence projections under different population growth and climate change scenarios; food availability assessments across 44 African countries

Outcomes reported

The study modelled the impacts of future population growth and climate change on food availability and undernourishment prevalence across 44 African countries by 2050. Results indicate that projected population growth is the dominant driver of future food insecurity and undernourishment, with climate change having minimal additional impact in the scenarios examined.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Food security & global nutrition
Study type
Research
Study design
Modelling study
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
International
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1080/14735903.2017.1293929
Catalogue ID
BFmowc2b4w-j0v7l7

Topic tags

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