Greedy or needy? Land use and climate impacts of food in 2050 under different livestock futures

Summary

This global scenario modelling study explores the relative contributions of supply-side and demand-side interventions to achieving a sustainable food system by 2050. Using four contrasting livestock futures and paired dietary variants, the authors found that achieving food security with available cropland depends on the combined effect of production intensification (to North-Western European levels), closing yield gaps by 50%, and reducing waste by 50%. The analysis illustrates that neither production efficiency nor dietary change alone is sufficient; rather, the sufficiency of global cropland is contingent on all three factors working together.

UK applicability

The study's assumption that livestock intensification to North-Western European standards is feasible and environmentally sustainable is directly relevant to UK policy and farming practice, as the UK already operates at comparable intensification levels. However, the findings suggest that UK-level intensification alone is insufficient without global yield improvements and waste reductions, indicating that domestic productivity gains must be coupled with international agricultural development and circular economy measures.

Key measures

Global land use (hectares); greenhouse gas emissions; cropland sufficiency; livestock production intensity; yield gaps; waste levels

Outcomes reported

The study modelled global land use and greenhouse gas emissions across four contrasting livestock production futures (intensification, plant-based transition, artificial meat/dairy, and ecological leftovers production) combined with two dietary scenarios (trend-based and healthy diet), with variant assumptions on yield increases and waste reduction. Results demonstrated that available cropland sufficiency depends critically on the interaction between production intensification, productivity improvements, and waste reduction.

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